Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Alternatives to a War

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Saddam Hussein is an imperialist, guilty of invading both Iran and Kuwait at separate times. He is a madman who has used chemical weapons to commit genocide on his own people; a man who wrested control of his nation through elaborate deception and outright assassinations of political opponents. He is also a man that has been compared with Adolf Hitler himself, who was similarly imperialistic and guilty of a similar genocide on a larger scale. However, war is not the way to stop this man, history has shown that his patterns of aggression can have been prevented with a policy of containment, not a costly war.

When Iraq invaded Iran in 180 is was not without provocation. Iran’s government had conducted repeated border raids, had tried to assassinate Iraqi officials, and had tried to overthrow Hussein’s regime. Saddam did not carelessly attack Iran without considering the outcome of such a war. Internationally, Iran was viewed by the world as a country with a weak military force and one that was isolated from western culture and therefore lacked allies.

Even when Hussein’s seemed clearly imperialistic, in the Gulf War of 10, he was not without his motivations. Kuwait and Iraq had been involved in serious disagreements over oil prices and war debts. Containment did not work in the Gulf War simply because it was never attempted. Immediately after the Iraqi invasion or Kuwait NATO forces worked to push Iraqi troops out of the country and back into Iraq.

In a political move, the US government inadvertently signaled that it would not oppose an invasion of Kuwait. Again, as in the war against Iran, Iraq was lured in by the premise that Kuwait had a weak military and that an Iraqi invasion would not meet swift western retaliation.

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This historical evidence tells us that Saddam is not the reckless imperialist that he is outlined to be, but rather he has only attacked others when he felt his regime was threatened and when there was no military opposition to his aggression. Since we know this pattern, we know that Saddam is completely confinable and that war is unnecessary.

The Bush administration has claimed that war is necessary because Iraq would use weapons of mass destruction to blackmail the world. This threat of blackmail cannot work, Iraq knows that if they use weapons of mass destruction on the US, the US is capable of all-out retaliation, obliterating Iraq.

Another proposal for why war is necessary is that Iraq might covertly give al Qaeda weapons that it makes rather than use the weapons themselves. Despite desperate attempts to link the two, no distinct connections have been drawn between Iraq and al Qaeda.

Assuming, hypothetically, that a mutual hatred towards the United States brings the two opponents together, Iraq has little or nothing to gain from turning weapons over and could not be sure that US intelligence would not detect the transfer of weapons and respond accordingly. Whether the transfer is detected or not, the mere suspicion of his involvement would spark retaliation, and historically that’s the only thing that is needed to keep Saddam in line, the threat of retaliation.

Saddam is an enemy that we can predict, we have a history of him and we can predict what he will do. If we overthrow Hussein, however, we cannot know if his successor will be any better, we won’t be able to predict his actions, he will be a loose cannon.

A war with Iraq would cost 50 to 100 billion dollars, would increase anti-American tensions in the Middle East and around the world. A war would not promote eliminate a threat to world peace, it would create new ones. If the option to attack is used, it would accelerate many nation’s ambitions toward gaining nuclear armaments in an effort to protect themselves.

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